Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $235M, net income $37M, and Adjusted EBITDA $162M; production averaged 86.7 Mboe/d with LOE at $6.17/Boe . Distributions of $0.50/unit for Q4 were declared for payment on March 13, 2025 .
Management reaffirmed the operational 2025 outlook and lowered the interest expense midpoint by $22M, improving 2025 free cash flow; pro forma net debt/Adjusted EBITDA moved to 0.8x after equity proceeds and refinancing .
Q4 saw continued integration of two bolt-on acquisitions and entry into a new $750M revolving credit facility, with term loan repayment and RBL draws repositioning the capital structure for flexibility .
Sequentially, revenue declined vs Q3 and per-unit distribution fell, largely due to principal amortization and sharing with new equity purchasers; interest expense decreased to $24M as refinancing benefits began to accrue .
Consensus (S&P Global) estimates data was unavailable; therefore, vs-estimates comparisons are not provided.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Cost discipline and operational execution: LOE of $6.17/Boe and G&P of $3.36/Boe; production 86.7 Mboe/d with 11 gross wells spud and 10 brought online in Q4 .
Capital structure enhancement and FCF uplift: New $750M RBL, term loan repayment, and $230M equity offering reduced pro forma net debt/EBITDA to 0.8x and lowered the 2025 interest expense midpoint by $22M .
Strategic clarity around distributions and reinvestment: “We maintain a reinvestment rate of less than 50% of our operating cash flow... We target peer-leading variable distributions,” and midstream assets contributed $78M of EBITDA in 2024, underscoring integrated returns .

What Went Wrong

Sequential revenue and per-unit distribution compression: Revenue fell to $235M from $256M in Q3; Q4 distribution was $0.50/unit vs $0.60 in Q3, driven by principal amortization and sharing with new equity purchasers .
LOE up vs Q3: LOE per Boe rose to $6.17/Boe from $5.85/Boe, with CEO indicating BOE expense should be “basically flat” in 2025 .
Natural gas price sensitivity remains: Despite stronger Q4 realized natural gas pricing ($2.31/Mcf), management highlighted prior-year lows and continued macro exposure; leaving more liquids in gas stream is elective but keeps mix gas-heavy when economics favor it .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$239.994	$255.536	$235.000
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$39.516	$67.444	$36.517
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$135.528	$133.971	$162.130
EBITDA Margin (%)	56.5%	52.4%	69.0%
Net Income Margin (%)	16.5%	26.4%	15.6%
EPS ($/unit)	$0.42	$0.70	N/A
Distribution per Unit ($)	$0.90	$0.60	$0.50

Notes: EBITDA and net income margins are calculated using reported revenues and Adjusted EBITDA/net income figures.

Segment/Commodity Revenue Mix

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Oil (% of production revenues)	65%	60%	56%
Natural Gas (% of production revenues)	15%	20%	24%
NGLs (% of production revenues)	20%	20%	20%

Key KPIs

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Production (Mboe/d)	89.3	81.8	86.7
Volume Mix (Oil/Gas/NGL %)	23/53/24	23/53/24	24/52/24
Realized Price – Oil ($/Bbl)	$79.27	$74.55	$70.06
Realized Price – Gas ($/Mcf)	$1.33	$1.73	$2.31
Realized Price – NGL ($/Bbl)	$23.83	$22.61	$25.82
LOE ($/Boe)	$5.72	$5.85	$6.17
Gathering & Processing ($/Boe)	$2.93	$3.13	$3.36
Production Taxes (% of sales)	4.9%	4.7%	4.9%
G&A excl. SBC ($MM)	$9	$8	$8
Interest Expense ($MM)	$27	$27	$24
Development Costs ($MM)	$46	$53	$60

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Net Production (Mboe/d)	FY 2025	78.2–83.1	79–83	Maintained (fine-tuned range)
Total Capital ($MM)	FY 2025	$260–$280	$260–$280	Maintained
LOE ($/Boe)	FY 2025	$6.25–$6.50	Reaffirmed operational guidance	Maintained
Gathering & Processing ($/Boe)	FY 2025	$3.00–$3.30	Reaffirmed	Maintained
Production Taxes (%)	FY 2025	5.0%–6.0%	Reaffirmed	Maintained
Midstream Operating Profit ($MM)	FY 2025	$15–$18	Reaffirmed	Maintained
G&A excl. SBC ($MM)	FY 2025	$30–$34	Reaffirmed	Maintained
Interest Expense ($MM)	FY 2025	$75–$80	Midpoint lowered by $22M	Lowered
Quarterly Cash Distribution	Q4 2024	N/A	$0.50/unit declared	Announced

Drivers: Interest expense reduction stems from refinancing (new RBL) and term loan repayment, enhancing 2025 FCF and distribution capacity .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Capital structure & leverage	Focus on ≤1x debt/EBITDA; $21M term loan amortization; revolver undrawn	New $750M RBL; net debt/EBITDA 0.8x pro forma; interest expense guided lower	Improving
Reinvestment rate & rigs	Cut Oswego rig to stay ≤50% reinvestment; plan 3 rigs in 2025	Third rig timing: short Oswego program then deep Mississippian; maintain ≤50% reinvestment	Stable discipline, activity ramp
M&A pipeline & strategy	Seek PDP at <PV-10; consider assets outside Mid-Con; monetize non-core acreage	Expect at least one meaningful 2025 acquisition; lean into crude deals if accretive	Active pipeline
Midstream optionality	Midstream EBITDA $78M in 2024; keep assets integrated	Not pursuing monetization; critical to operations	Hold/integrate
Commodity mix & gas strategy	Gas-heavy production; low 2024 gas prices; hedging 50%/25%	Leaving liquids in gas stream; bullish on gas outlook; could see $5 summer strip	Improving gas macro
Cost/efficiency	Oswego D&C ~$2.6M per well; $202–$204 per lateral foot	BOE expense expected “basically flat” 2025; continued efficiency	Sustained discipline
Non-op budget	Elect out of most non-ops; small deep gas participation	Non-op remains “fairly consistently low”	Stable

Management Commentary

“We maintain a reinvestment rate of less than 50% of our operating cash flow... We target peer-leading variable distributions.”
“We purchased [midstream] facilities for $65 million, and these assets contributed $78 million of EBITDA in 2024 alone.”
“We hedge 50% of our oil and natural gas on a rolling 1-year basis and 25% during the second year.”
“We anticipate spending between $225 million to $240 million on drilling and completion plus workovers in 2025... holding our production basically flat.”
“Post year-end, we closed a bolt-on acquisition... improved our cost of borrowing by refinancing our term loan with a new revolving credit facility... lowering our pro forma net-debt-to-Adjusted-EBITDA ratio from 1.0x... to 0.8x.”

Q&A Highlights

Third rig timing and focus: Short Oswego program followed by deep Mississippian in Custer County; driven by reinvestment rate and rising operating cash flow .
Distribution mechanics and Q4 reduction: Principal amortization reduced cash available; per-unit distribution shared with new equity purchasers .
Midstream monetization: Assets considered critical; producing more EBITDA than purchase price annually; no sale planned .
Gas vs oil acquisitions: Preference to lean into crude if accretive; bullish long-term gas demand; potential $5 summer strip .
BOE expense outlook: Expect “basically flat” in 2025 despite 2024 uptick tied to asset mix and decline dynamics .

Estimates Context

Attempts to retrieve S&P Global consensus estimates for EPS and revenue (Q4/Q3 and FY) were unsuccessful due to provider daily request limits. As a result, vs-consensus comparisons are unavailable for this recap.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Distribution capacity in 2025 should benefit from a $22M reduction at the interest expense midpoint and lower leverage post-refinancing, supporting the variable distribution model .
Cost control remains robust; LOE/G&P per Boe are within guided ranges, and operational efficiency in Oswego/Woodford continues to drive attractive well economics .
Strategic optionality is intact: integrated midstream, hedging discipline, and a sizable inventory allow pivoting between acquisitions and drilling while maintaining ≤50% reinvestment .
Gas macro is turning supportive; management can elect to leave liquids in the gas stream and ramp deep gas/condensate activity, potentially enhancing EBITDA and FCF if strip improves .
Near-term trading: Watch for term loan/RBL actions and any sizable accretive M&A (management expects at least one in 2025) as catalysts; distributions will flex with commodity prices and capital decisions .
Medium-term thesis: Emphasis on cash returns, bolt-on acquisitions at <PV-10, and integrated midstream monetization of owned molecules underpins resilient FCF across cycles .
Risk checks: Commodity price volatility, LOE trajectory, and competition in Mid-Con assets; management’s reinvestment discipline and hedging help mitigate downside .

MACH NATURAL RESOURCES LP (MNR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary